In a stark critique of the European Central Bank’s latest research, prominent analyst Tuur Demeester has labeled the ECB’s new publication as a “true declaration of war” against Bitcoin. The ECB’s paper, titled “The Distributional Consequences of Bitcoin,” authored by Ulrich Bindseil and Jürgen Schaaf, has ignited a fervent response from the BTC community.
The ECB’s paper challenges the foundational premise of Bitcoin by arguing that its appreciation does not contribute to the productive capacity of the economy. Instead, the paper posits that a sustained increase in BTC’s value leads to redistributive effects, where the consumption and wealth accumulation of early holders potentially impoverish non-holders and latecomers.
The authors assert, “If the price of Bitcoin rises for good, the existence of Bitcoin impoverishes both non-holders and latecomers,” emphasizing that this outcome is inherent even without poor trading timing or holding strategies.
A Looming War Against Bitcoin?
Tuur Demeester, a long-time BTC analyst and board member at the Texas Bitcoin Foundation, has been at the forefront of this backlash, characterizing the ECB’s publication as a “true declaration of war” against Bitcoin. Via X, he expresses his deep concerns regarding the ECB’s stance. “This new paper is a true declaration of war: the ECB claims that early Bitcoin adopters steal economic value from latecomers. I strongly believe authorities will use this luddite argument to enact harsh taxes or bans,” Demeester states.
He further elaborates on his apprehensions, emphasizing the potential for stringent regulatory measures aimed at stifling BTC’s growth and adoption. “Rather than praising Bitcoin as a tech paradigm shift à la petroleum and the internet, the authors introduce the blatantly luddite argument that ‘early adopters’ … ‘increase their real wealth and consumption’ … ‘at the expense of [latecomers]’,” he adds.
Demeester did not hold back in his critique of the ECB’s motivations and the implications of their findings. “Then they go on to brazenly advocate for legislation … ‘to prevent Bitcoin prices from rising or to see Bitcoin disappear altogether’ in order to prevent ‘the division of society’.” He condemns the ECB for what he sees as an aggressive and unfounded approach to regulating BTC, arguing that such measures are indicative of a broader agenda to undermine decentralized financial systems.
“In all the years I’ve been monitoring the Bitcoin space, this is by far the most aggressive paper to come from authorities. The gloves are off. It’s clear that these central bank economists now see Bitcoin as an existential threat, to be attacked with any means possible,” Demeester warns.
Expanding on his concerns, Demeester warns of the potential long-term consequences of the ECB’s stance. “Many of us have warned that this was coming: Bitcoin as a major political fault line both in national and international elections. Well here it is. It means that us HODLers must take action to insure that governments respect our basic right to hold property.”
He frames the situation not merely as a regulatory challenge but as a fundamental clash of ideologies. “And no, this won’t be a war between haves and have-nots. Rather this will be a historic clash between those who stand for the natural rights of the individual, and those who clutch at the failed ideologies of collectivism and central planning.”
Marc van der Chijs, a Dutch global investor, echoes Demeester’s concerns, highlighting a series of regulatory measures across Europe that are increasingly hostile towards investors. “Europe seems to be preparing a war on Bitcoiners: higher cap gains on BTC in Italy, a proposed exit tax in The Netherlands, no mortgage in the UK if you made the money for your real estate in crypto (personal experience!), and now the ECB is telling no-coiners that Bitcoiners are keeping them poor,” van der Chijs remarks.
He criticizes the ECB’s characterization of early adopters, arguing that their success is a result of strategic investment and risk-taking rather than any nefarious intent to undermine others. “That last one is truly unbelievable: the early adopters were simply smarter (or spent more time on it) and willing to take more risks. Now they are getting vilified for that. Very dangerous that these are words from the ECB, it sounds more like the communist Chinese Central Bank to me,” he adds.
Van der Chijs is also concerned over the shifting regulatory landscape, noting that if BTC’s price continues to rise significantly, there could be an intensification of punitive measures against investors. “The Overton window is quickly shifting against Bitcoiners (and against wealthy people in general). I have heard from a number of people in The Netherlands who hold Bitcoin that they are getting a bit worried about the changing regulations. If Bitcoin should double or triple in 2025 I would not be surprised to see more politicians turning against BTC and trying to tax it excessively. Be prepared!” he warns.
In response to the ECB’s contentious publication, Dennis Porter, CEO and co-founder of Satoshi Act Fund, has announced plans to formulate a comprehensive rebuttal. Initially, Porter stated, “Anti-Bitcoin ECB paper to be slammed shortly by a full academic rebuttal. New paper inbound. If you’re interested in contributing, let me know. Or tag those you think we should be chatting with.”
Demonstrating swift action, Porter later confirmed, “My team has begun crafting the official response to the ECB paper. We will have a draft done by today or tomorrow at the latest. If you want to contribute, please reach out. We plan to move very quickly,” and further updated, “ECB rebuttal draft complete — multiple co-authors have now begun contributing — open call for contributors in place for 24 hours.”
At press time, BTC traded at $69,005.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com