When it involves Tesla (ticker: TSLA), Wall Street sometimes begins 1 / 4 out feeling optimistic. In six of the previous eight quarters, analysts’ preliminary automobile supply estimates have been larger than their closing estimates. The closing quantity sometimes ends at about 98% of the preliminary quantity.

Third-quarter numbers illustrate the everyday sample. Tesla delivered a report 466,140 within the second quarter. Following that end result, Wall Street set the third quarter supply quantity at about 473,000 items. Now the quantity is all the way down to 468,000. It will in all probability end below 463,000.

Tesla administration informed buyers on the second-quarter earnings convention name that deliberate plant downtime would restrict sequential supply development between Q2 and Q3.

Why the cuts? It’s tough to say. It’s attainable that as 1 / 4 wears on analysts begin to fear about demand or manufacturing or each. It’s attainable that they wish to set a decrease bar that’s simpler to beat. Wall Street prefers conservatism. Don’t neglect, roughly 70% of corporations reporting quarterly numbers exceed Wall Street estimates.

Falling estimates can put strain on a inventory. Tesla inventory fell 3.3% Monday whereas the Nasdaq Composite was flat after Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney lower his 2023 earnings estimate to $2.90 this 12 months from $3.00.

His quantity contains stock-based compensation. When reporting earnings, many corporations, together with Tesla, take away stock-based compensation and report adjusted earnings figures. For Tesla, Wall Street expects adjusted 2023 earnings per share of about $3.35. The unadjusted determine is near Delaney’s $2.90 a share.

Monday buying and selling is an instance of what can occur when estimates come down. That makes the prospect of falling supply numbers scary, however buyers don’t have to fret all that a lot about falling supply estimates although. There is little rhyme or purpose for a way Tesla inventory reacts to altering supply figures.

Delivery numbers a lot better than preliminary or revised estimates, after all, are good for Tesla inventory. Shares rose 13.5% in January 2022 after the corporate reported fourth-quarter 2021 deliveries of about 309,000 items. Wall Street began out projecting 261,000 items for the quarter and settled on 268,000 items simply earlier than the report. Much worse than anticipated is unhealthy. Tesla inventory dropped 12.2% in January 2023 after the corporate reported fourth-quarter 2022 deliveries of about 405,000 items. Wall Street began out projecting 440,000 items and settled on 427,000 items.

Excluding excessive instances, predicting reactions could be very tough. Tesla inventory has risen or fallen after supply beats and misses. How estimates modified coming into the supply report isn’t a lot assist. Stock reactions depend upon many components, together with how Tesla inventory is doing heading right into a supply report.

This time round, Tesla inventory is down about 5% because it reported second-quarter supply figures. The S&P 500 is flat over the identical span.

The setup for Tesla inventory will change between now and Oct. 2, when the supply report is due. Between every now and then all buyers can do is collect context and put together.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com