PUNE: The statistical fashions utilized by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had did not predict all of the three droughts in India within the final decade. Though statistical fashions will nonetheless be used for monsoon forecast, the ministry of earth sciences is placing extra emphasis on dynamic fashions.

M Rajeevan of National Atmospheric Research Laboratory stated, “the failure to predict the 2009 drought has raised many serious issues. On the other hand, the state-of-the art coupled ocean atmospheric models have sho-wed improved skills in predicting inter annual variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall.”

He was talking on the golden jubilee convention of Indian Institute of Climate Change (IITM), Pune, on ‘alternatives and challenges in monsoon prediction in altering local weather’. Since 2011, the IITM has used the coupled mannequin for monsoon forecast.

Better climate forecast wants knowledge from all elements of the globe. “In every part of the world, farmers are saying that the climate is not as it used to be. Hence, traditional knowledge is also failing. For better prediction of weather, we need observations from all countries. We need super computers of even higher capacities. We need to have knowledge about how to translate scientific progress into concrete applications,” stated Michel Jarraud, secretary normal, World Meteorological Organisation.
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